Continuing
land use and socio-economic change has occurred across the Green
Triangle and Central Victoria over the past 15 years. In 2000, a
team of University of Melbourne researchers examined the
socio-economic impacts of land use change in south west Victoria,
and identified extensive land use change from grazing to cropping,
dairy farming and timber plantations (
Petheram et al. 2000). During the
1990s cropping expanded by 143,000 ha, dairy farming by 90,000 ha
and blue gum plantations from less than 2,000 ha to approximately
30,000 ha. Since 2000, land use changes have continued. For
example, the area under plantations in the south west is now
approximately 100,000 ha while cropping and dairy farming have also
continued to expand. In addition, increasing numbers of rural
residential dwellers have shifted onto rural land in parts of the
region.
The project
Rapid land use change has continued since the
2000 study was undertaken. In 2006, a need was identified for a new
project examining the impacts of land use change in the Green
Triangle and Central Victoria. The project was launched in
August 2006, and runs until mid-2008. The project analyses the
social and economic impacts of change to and from, and within, the
following types of land use, all of which have been occurring in
recent years in the Green Triangle and Central Victoria (in
alphabetical order):
- Beef grazing
- Blue gum plantations
- Cropping
- Dairy farming
- Horticulture (exact types to be studied are still under
consideration)
- ‘Lifestyle’ farming/rural residential
development
- Pine plantations
- Sheep grazing (wool and prime lamb)
- Viticulture
Results of the study will be made publicly
available, so they will be accessible to anyone with an interest in
land use change issues, including those who are making decisions
and policy related to land use change.
This project follows up the 2000 study, and
extends it to cover a larger geographic area from Colac-Otway,
Victoria, in the east of the study region, to Robe in the lower
south east of South Australia, as shown in the map below.
Members of the community to have contributed to
the project in many ways. Members of the community in the region
have participated in focus groups (in September 2006),
responded to surveys about their views on different types of land
use change (June and December 2007), and have participated on a
series of focus groups in June 2008 discussing initial statistical
analysis undertaken for the project.
The project includes four major research
components:
1. Attitudes and values survey.
An attitudes and values survey was undertaken in
May-June 2007, with surveys sent to around 3,000 people across the
region. The survey examines the ways people perceive different land
uses within the region. This information will help us to develop an
in-depth understanding of attitudes, values and perceptions of
residents of the region about the following types of land use
change:
- Land use change to blue gum plantations
- Land use change to cropping
- Land use change to dairy farming
- Land use change to rural residential/lifestyle farming
The survey topics and questions were developed with the input of
participants in eight focus groups held in September 2006, as well
as the project Advisory Group (for more information on the focus
groups, see our first project
update; for more information on the Advisory Group please refer
to the project governance
page. For more information on the methodology being used in
this and other parts of the study, check out the project methods
page.
2. Quantify and analyse land use,
industry and socio-economic change in the region using independent
data.
This part of the project examines the question
'what impacts have land use changes had on social and economic
characteristics of the region?' Independent data from sources such
as the Australian Bureau of Statistics are being used to analyse
key land use and socio-economic changes in the Green Triangle &
Central Victoria since 1991, and the extent to which different
types of land use change are linked to social and economic
change in different parts of the region. It will draw on data from
the 2006 Census of Population and Housing as they become available
to ensure the results are as up-to-date as possible.
Data will also be collected directly to compare
the employment and spending generated by different land uses in the
region. In April 2007, a workshop was held with a group of experts
with in-depth knowledge of the beef grazing, cropping, dairy,
plantation, sheep grazing, and viticulture industries. This
workshop began developing a framework for comparing employment and
spending generated by these industries in the region. A report
detailing the framework to be used will be available for download
soon.
Topics to be studied in this part of the project
were identified using input from focus groups held in the region in
September 2006, as well as advice from the project Advisory Group.
In late 2007, local community members with in-depth knowledge of
the changes occurring in their area will be asked to participate in
focus groups in which they will assist researchers in interpreting
the data produced for this part of the project.
To download a detailed description of the methodology, land uses
and social and economic changes being examined, please go to the
project
methods page.
3. Understand shifts in the landholder
population.
A survey of landholders in 2007 will identify
why and when landholders choose to sell or lease their properties
for plantation forestry, and where they go when they leave their
properties.
To download a detailed description of the methodology, land uses
and social and economic changes being examined, please see the
project
methods page.
4. Develop community engagement and
participatory modelling tools to support better communication and
planning by the community regarding land use
change.
This part of the project will draw on the results of Parts 1-3,
and will be developed after results of the first four parts are
finalised.
At what scale will information be
produced?
Where possible, data will be produced at the
'Statistical Local Area' (SLA) scale. Each local government area
(LGA) in the study generally comprises 1-2 SLAs. By producing data
at SLA scale, local government will be able to utilise project
results related to their LGA and understand how their LGA differs
from others nearby.
Results of the community attitudes survey will
be produced at a larger scale, for example for clusters of LGAs and
for the region as a whole. This is necessary as very large numbers
of respondents are needed to provide results that we can be
confident accurately represent the range of views in the wider
population.
Project outcomes and use of
results
Key outcomes of the project will be:
-
a comprehensive understanding and
quantification of land use, industry and socio-economic change
across the region since 1991, and how different parts of the
community perceive these changes (available in mid-2008), and
- strategies for improved community engagement and modelling
tools to assist in planning activities related to land use change
(a longer term project involving ongoing work with the
community).
The project results will assist local
government, government agencies and different industries in the
region in identifying the likely socio-economic impacts of
different types of change, and hence assist in planning for future
change.
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Researchers and funding
The project is being conducted by a team of
researchers with considerable experience analysing land use and
socio-economic change in rural regions. The researchers are based
at the Australian National University, University of Melbourne, and
Victorian Department of Primary Industries. The project is hosted
by the Cooperative Research Centre for Forestry. To find out more
about the CRC for Forestry, please click here.
Staff working on the project include:
The following project partners have committed cash
or in-kind funding to the project (in alphabetical order):
If you would like to find out more about how the project is
being governed, including the terms of reference for the Steering
Committee and Advisory Group, please refer to the project governance
page.
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How you can keep in touch
If you would like to be included on a list of
people who receive updates on the project as it progresses (by
email or post), please contact Alex Campbell-Wilson (please
scroll down for contact details).
This website will be updated as further
opportunities for involvement become available. We also send
updates via email/post to those who have indicated interest in the
project.
Project news
Updates on project progress and current activities
are posted on the project news
page.
Links to other resources
If you would like to access information about other
studies which have examined the socio-economic impacts of land use
change, please check out the related links
page.
